Sweden: escalation of crime caused by the increase in the number of immigrants

ER Editor: On the same subject, we also recommend this excellent, rather more anecdotal piece by Paulina Neuding for The Spectator from February of this year titled Violent crime in Sweden is soaring. When will politicians act?


Sweden: escalation of crime caused by the increase in the number of immigrants


Malmö, once a quiet industrial port. Yesterday’s serenity has given way to today’s widespread violence: shootouts, rapes, robberies, assaults and shoplifting are the order of the day. Swedes are leaving Malmö because the police are unable to enforce law and order. What is the reason behind it? A sharp increase in the number of immigrants. Other Swedish regions are afflicted as well: the authorities cannot cope with the escalation of crime. Their incompetence came to the fore one August evening when in several Swedish cities nearly 100 cars were set ablaze.

Demographic growth based on immigrants

The increase in crime is explained by the increase in the number of people.1) Our calculations show that within seventeen years (2000-2017), during which 1.76 million immigrants arrived, and the overall number of inhabitants rose by 12%, the sum of registered acts of serious lawbreaking increased by 25%. Therefore, it cannot be denied that the intensity of lawlessness has a lot to do with the influx of foreigners.

The Gefira team showed that the disproportion in fertility between immigrants and natives is growing.2) While the official fertility rate is 1.9, the statistical Swedish woman has 1.6 children, whereas a foreign-born woman has 2.3 (women living outside Europe have 3.2). This means that demographic growth results from the fertility of national minorities, especially immigrants from the Middle East and Africa. If this trend continues, in 2070 the population in Sweden will reach 13 million, of which native inhabitants will constitute only 50%.3)

Crime intensification and immigration

The number of offenses and crimes committed is growing significantly out of proportion with the demographic increase. In the period from 2000 to 2017, the largest change was recorded in the number of crimes against life and health (including murder or attempted murder, manslaughter, suicide and other activities resulting in the death of the victim or severe or moderate damage to health): in 2000, a total of 61,788 of such crimes were carried out, while in 2017 as many as 91,127, an increase of 47%. The most noticeable is the ever larger number of acts of fraud by 413%, rape by 364%, sex crimes by 252%, murders by 249% and assaults by 143%.

Organized criminal groups and illegal possession of firearms has also become a problem. The number of murders with their use rose from 8 in 2006 to 43 in 2017,4) and the number of their confiscations has more than doubled in the last four years.5) Information about last year shows that 90% of performed and attempted murders were committed by immigrants or people who have at least one parent that is not Swedish.6) Police data indicate that the areas with the highest crime rates are territories where the percentage of foreigners is above 50%.7) Immigrants of the first and second generation are more likely to fall afoul of law than native Swedes.8) Foreigners are also three times more likely to be suspected of a violent assault, four times of murder and robbery, and five times of sex crimes.9) Most crimes are committed by people from Africa and the Middle East, and the least by foreigners from Europe, Southeast Asia and North America.10) The cost of enforcing law and compensating for the damage done by immigrants amounts to SEK 20 billion (almost EUR 2 billion) per year.11)

Swedish are a minority in prisons

Although different sources provide various data, the immigrant population is noticeably over-represented in prisons. According to World Prison Brief, in 2016 people from abroad made up 22% of all convicts.12) However, other statistics show that between 2003 and 2013 there was an increase in the number of foreigners relative to all sentenced from 25% to 35%.13) According to a leaked police report, it turns out that 45% of all people sentenced to imprisonment in 2004-2014 were immigrants.14) Comparing the information published by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention and the Swedish Prison and Probation Service, we arrived at the conclusion that in a group of about 8,500 people sent to prison each year,15) 3,000 – 35% – are foreigners.16) We do not have data about prisoners who have at least one foreign-born parent, but we assume that the sum of first and second generation immigrants constituting the prison population may exceed 50%.

Swedish officials either do not recognize the connection between the increase in crime and the number of immigrants, or guided by the principles of political correctness, pretend that they do not see it.17) The government maintains that the number of victims has not changed substantially. There is a marked decrease in the number of burglaries, theft of vehicles and shoplifting, and even robberies, but these are offenses that do not directly threaten life.

The prison system is inefficient and inept

The Swedish penitentiary system also bears the burden of crime growth. Although the authorities boast of less criminality18)and the possibility of serving a sentence at home (in sentences of up to 6 months imprisonment, during which time the convict is subjected to intense supervision with electronic monitoring), it is strange that Swedish prisons are filled to 95% of their capacity. It also means that the authorities are not prepared for the escalation of crime. Another problem was the violence of prisoners against prison staff: in 2017 an increase of 39% was noted – in comparison to 2016 –in  attacks on guards, of which 91 were injured.19)

Governmental demagogy versus reality

The authorities contest the increase in the number of reported rapes, considering that it is not caused by a higher frequency of committing this crime by extending its statutory definition. Officially it is assumed that if a victim is raped several times by the same person, it is regarded as one instance of a crime, whereas in other countries such an event would be treated as several acts.20) The data of the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention point out that despite the changes extending the concept of this crime, the number of victims of sexual crimes increased,21) which indicates the growing scale of this phenomenon. On the basis of 2015 statistics, it can be pointed out that sex crimes directed against women are much more frequent, and as much as 80% is committed by foreigners.22)

At the same time, the government justifies the offenses committed by immigrants, claiming that the perpetrators are driven by the stress of the inflicted torture or the death of a loved one.23) But how?! After all, according to the officials, immigrants are not responsible for more crime?! Another bureaucratic argument that aims to to explain the greater tendency to break the law among newcomers are social and economic differences, as well as alleged discrimination against foreigners by investigative authorities.

The above data confirm the high interdependence between the increase in the number of immigrants and violence. Considering the continued flooding of Sweden by the so-called refugees, as well as the high fertility of non-Swedish women, we suppose that the escalation of crime is only about to begin. The fights that are taking place in Malmö, Stockholm or Göteborg will turn into a regular war. We don’t think the authorities will be able to manage the increasing lawlessness.


Original article

ER recommends other articles by Gefira


1. Brotten, skulderna, bakgrunden – sanningen om de gängkriminella i Stockholm, Expressen 2017-06-30.
2. Highly fertile women from Africa are the secret of Swedish high birth rate, Gefira 2018-08-14.
3. Sweden will remain Sweden but just in name, Gefira 2018-07-27.
4. Siffrorna visar: Kraftig ökning av dödsskjutningar, SVT Nyheter 2018-01-20.
5, 19. Violence on the rise in Sweden’s nearly-full prisons, The Local 2018-07-12.
6. Vanligt med utländsk bakgrund bland unga män som skjuter, Dagens Nyheter 2017-05-20.
7. Myndighetsgemensam lägesbild om organiserad brottslighet 2018-2019, Polisen 2017.
8. Are Children of Immigrants Born in Sweden More Law-Abiding Than Immigrants? A Reconsideration, Sage Journals 2013-04-30.
9, 10. Brottslighet bland personer födda i Sverige och i utlandet, Brottsförebyggande rådet 2005.
11, 16. Svårt föra över utländska fångar, Aftonbladet 2018-07-15.
12. Sweden – World Prison Brief data, Prison Studies.
13. More foreign prisoners in Swedish jails, Sveriges Radio 2013-08-23.
14. Gigantisk databas över invandrares brott – sajten polisanmäls, Fria Tider 2017-12-04.
15. The Prison and Probation Service, Brottsförebyggande rådet.
17. Kriminologen: Osäkert om brotten ökar, SVT Nyheter 2018-05-14.
18. Sweden to Trump: Immigrants aren’t causing a crime wave, USA Today 2017-02-22.
20. Facts about migration, integration and crime in Sweden, Government Offices Of Sweden 2017-02-23.
21. Nationella trygghetsundersökningen 2017, Brottsförebyggande rådet 2018.
22. Lägesbild över sexuella ofredanden samt förslag till åtgärder, Polisen 2016-05-16.
23. Facts about migration, integration and crime in Sweden, Government Offices of Sweden 2017-02-23.

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