California Secession by the Numbers

Calls for California to secede from the United States, so-called, “CalExit,” are again being heard from the Left now that the Trump Administration’s ongoing effort to employ widescale ICE raids to round up illegal immigrants has arrived in Los Angeles. The City of Angels has responded with less than angelic violent and destructive riots and rhetoric. But what would California secession mean for the U.S., for the Democrats, and for Republicans, if it actually happened?

The political, economic, cultural, and national security implications of a California secession are too vast to cover here. However, some of the likely immediate political outcomes in terms of how the national political landscape would change can be easily and hypothetically predicted using widely available and largely uncontested voting data from the 2024 national presidential election. And the data suggests the GOP would be the big winner.

Under current conditions, if California were to secede from the United States of America:

• It would mean two less California Democrat (CA-DEM) controlled U.S. Senate seats.
• It would also mean forty-three fewer CA-DEM controlled U.S. House seats.
• Nine California Republican (GOP) U.S. House seats would also be lost.
• In addition, based on 2024 Presidential Election results, there would be roughly 9,276,179 fewer CA-DEM votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in National Elections. This represents approx. 59% of all California 2024 presidential votes cast, approx. 6% of the total number of votes for president in the national election, and approx. 12% of the total Democrat votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the 2024 National Election.
• Lastly, it would also mean fifty-four fewer CA-DEM controlled Electoral College (EC) votes, or approx. 10% of the total number of EC votes, and approx. 24% of the EC votes won by Harris/Walz.

Based on these rough numbers, were California to actually make good on its perennial threat to secede from the United States, the GOP would benefit greatly, at least on the national level.

There have been several efforts to split California into multiple states, the most recent in 2018, seeking to create six new states. However, at least one of these new states would necessarily encompass the major cities of Los Angeles and San Francisco, where Democrats own an overwhelming voting bloc. This would continue to give Democrats a lopsided national influence. And, not to mention, it would likely give the DNC control of additional U.S. Senate seats, and control of a comparable number of Electoral College votes as they currently enjoy.

A more targeted and partial California secession would benefit the GOP to an even greater extent. However, it is uncertain whether this would be legally possible without constitutional amendment. Therefore, the full secession of California remains the best option for GOP political interests.

This alone is insurance enough that the Democratic Party will never consent to California secession, and any such threat may be considered empty, and should not be taken seriously.