Weather Models Flip Warmer
US NatGas futures Suffer Biggest One-Day Decline Since 1996
(ZH) – Update – US natural gas futures tumbled on Monday as the latest weather models pointed to warmer conditions across the Lower 48, following several miserable weeks of winter that sent NatGas spot prices soaring due to freeze-offs and spiking power prices amid surging heating demand.
The March contract crashed 26% to about $3.218/MMBtu after the two-week outlook for the Lower 48 indicated temperatures would revert to 30-year seasonal norms. Bloomberg data shows the front-month contract is on the steepest daily loss on a percentage basis since 1996, excluding contract rollover days.
Heating degree days, a measure of how cold the weather is and how much energy is needed to heat homes and businesses, have plunged from north of 40 to about 35, with a two-week outlook showing sub-20s by mid-month. The translation is simple: warmer weather means less heating demand, so utilities burn less NatGas.
See our earlier reporting on freeze-offs and grid stress after weeks of historic cold weather.
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A sharp reversal in US natural gas futures was seen early Monday after skyrocketing prices in the second half of January, when dangerously cold air and a major winter storm triggered freeze-offs across critical NatGas infrastructure. The weather-driven supply disruptions coincided with a spike in heating demand, unleashing stress on power grids across much of the eastern US and driving NatGas spot prices sharply higher before the pullback, as well as power prices…
The front-month NatGas contract plunged as much as 17% to $3.620 per million British thermal units in early Asian trading, erasing Friday’s 11% gain after weeks of record-breaking cold.
New weather models show milder conditions across parts of the Lower 48 over the next two weeks.
There’s some light at the end of the tunnel for the winter-weary East Coast.
A possible moderating trend during the week of Feb. 9! pic.twitter.com/DbflucI5qh
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) February 1, 2026
By mid-month, temperatures in the US are expected to revert to 30-year seasonal norms.
Let’s recap weather and energy reporting over the last few weeks, in which we led the discussion on NatGas freeze-offs and power grid stress. It’s clear that fossil fuel power generation saved many grids from collapse across the eastern US.
Recap:
- “Sleep Tight, America. We Got This”: NatGas And Coal Power Plants Prevented Grid Collapse During Historic Winter Blast
- Wild Few Weeks For NatGas. Goldman Weighs In With Post-Winter Storm Energy Commentary
- NatGas Rips Higher As Arctic Blast Knocks 12% Of U.S. production Offline
- Power Diverted From Data Centers To Households Across PJM Network Amid Historic Freeze
Our takeaway from the record cold and severe winter weather is clear: the Trump administration’s push to boost reliable fossil fuel power generation helped prevent grid collapse. Dispatchable coal and NatGas plants, some of which had been slated for early retirement under the Democratic Party’s insane green-energy policies, proved essential in stabilizing power systems under extreme winter stress.
With nuclear capacity additions unlikely to be added to the grid until the 2030s, fossil fuels remain the backbone of the US economy and grid reliability. This latest weather episode reinforces an optically displeasing reality for radical-left Democrats: energy policy must prioritize reliability and resilience over toxic green ideology that appears to do more to self-sabotage the nation than improve life for everyone. Just look at the mess Europe is in.
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Header featured image (edited) credit: YouTube public card article tease. Emphasis added by (TLB) editors
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