Democrats’ Midterms Hope Turning To Despair

Democrats’ Midterms Hope Turning To Despair

“We Peaked A Little Early”

BY TYLER DURDEN

After a summertime burst of optimism, many Democratic political operatives are decidedly gloomy approaching the final stretch to Election Day.

Their hopes were rising in July and August, on the expectation that the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade would energize the Democratic base and nudge independents into voting for the blue team. 

Their abortion-issue hopes have proven wildly overblown, as a mere 5% of likely voters say abortion is their top concern, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. Instead a plurality point to the economy and inflation, and most think Republicans are best equipped to tackle both.

22 DAYS UNTIL THE MIDTERMS.

If you want UNLIMITED ABORTIONS, vote Democrat.

If you want a return to an affordable cost of living, vote Republican.

— James Bradley (@JamesBradleyCA) October 17, 2022

A Harvard/Harris poll released on Monday found 53% of voters say they’re more likely to vote for a Republican, compared to 47% who favor Democrats. Just 40% of Americans approve of President Biden’s performance, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Mark Longabaugh, a Democratic ad maker and veteran of the 2016 Bernie Sanders campaign, tells Politico:

“Look, man, I’ve been at this for 30 years, and it is always the period in late September and early October when an election starts to tilt and move. So, we’re at that moment, and I don’t think you can look at these numbers across the country and say anything but it looks like it’s moving in Republicans’ direction.”

The 40,000-foot view is bad enough, but it’s the steady drumbeat of discouraging race-by-race poll results that now has Democrats bracing for a punishing midterm.

In the battle to break the 50-50 tie in the Senate, Republicans have taken small leads in Wisconsin and Nevada, and Herschel Walker is still hanging around despite the October-surprise claims about his ex-girlfriend’s abortion. RealClearPolitics now puts Dr. Oz in the lead in Pennsylvania, after adjusting for historical polling errors, and projects a 52-48 GOP Senate majority.

It looks like we’re going to lose the midterms. People will look back at Democrat’s inability to pass voting rights legislation as the moment we lost everything. Stunning failure of epic proportions. And everyone in DC yawned because they’re used to excusing Democratic failures.

— Cenk Uygur (@cenkuygur) October 18, 2022

In the House, counting “safe,” “likely” and “leans,” RealClearPolitics gives Republicans a 221-176 lead, with 38 more races considered toss-ups. In June, that outlet projected the GOP would gain 24.5 seats; now it forecasts a 27-seat pickup.

In reliably blue Oregon, a Republican is poised to take the governorship for the first time in 35 years. Michigan governor and lockdown enthusiast Gretchen Whitmer is up only now leading by just 5 points in the latest poll. Even the New York governor race has tightened up, with Quinnipiac putting Democrat Kathy Hochul up only 4 points — and independents breaking toward challenger Lee Zeldin 57% to 37%.

“I think we had three really good weeks in August that everybody patted themselves on the back,” an anonymous Democratic advisor to major donors tells Politico. “We were like, ‘Yeah, that should be enough to overcome two years of shitty everything’.” Now, he says, “It’s not looking great. The best we can hope for right now is a 50-50 Senate, but the House is long gone.”

Oddsmakers have similarly flipped red when it comes to the GOP’s chances of retaking the Senate, joining a longstanding bet that they’ll win control of the House.

Senate odds have flipped back to GOP favored this morning over at https://t.co/1qj8Q5zKfk, which looks at live betting market odds. pic.twitter.com/fWoGLktBrF

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 19, 2022

••••

The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)

••••

Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.

••••

Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.

••••

Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.