By TLB Contributor: Dave Hodges.
Let’s agree to go to war.
Ukraine’s first president, Leonid Kravchuk, believes that Russia could usher in the end of the world as we know it, if Vladimir Putin doesn’t back down. Kravchuk stated that Putin does not back down, ever! For several different reasons, it is becoming increasingly likely that war could break out in Ukraine as early as this May.
The Winds of War Are Increasing
Russia has test-fired its ICBM arsenal as a display of military muscle and this event prompted Ukraine officials to appear on CNN and they appealed for help from the United States. Yes, the interviews seemed contrived, but war is war regardless of whether it is being artificially staged by the bankers.
In another concerning and recent provocation, the Russian Black Sea fleet commander reportedly issued an ultimatum for open warfare with Ukraine if Ukraine and its military did not capitulate to Russian demands. Although Moscow has officially denied the allegations, there are scores of reports from journalists on the ground claiming the complete opposite. What about that spy ship parked off the coast of Cuba? I suspect that if hostilities does break out, this ship will launch two nuclear missiles which will detonate in the mid-continental United States and an EMP attack will destroy America’s power grid. Additionally, these same Ukrainian new services have accused the Russians of attacking several of Ukraine’s government building including police stations. And of course, there are still a reported 160,000 Russian soldiers practicing war games on Ukraine’s border in several different locations. Ukraine continues sending troops to its Eastern and Northern Borders. Troops have been digging in along the border with Russia. As Ukrainian soldiers continue to increase their presence, amid fears the Russian military is staging training exercises close to the border in the Donbass region, one can safely bet that the first Russian military incursion will occur in this region.
Previously, General Philip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, has emphatically stated that Russia is using snap military exercises in preparation of a military invasion of Ukraine. Breedlove describes the term snap military exercise in a recent account. “A snap exercise puts an incredible force at a border. The force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizeable and very, very ready.”Breedlove notes that in addition to the Donbass region, Russia has its military “postured on the eastern border of Ukraine of the Trans-Dniester region if the decision was made to do that, and that is very worrisome. Trans-Dniester is a region on the border of Ukraine and neighboring Moldova. Breedlove further states that it is impossible to defend against the coming Russian invasion without pre-positioning assets in the area, “especially in the Baltics and other places“. If this does not imply the General isn’t expecting an invasion of Eastern Europe, I do not know what would. Several Eastern European countries have requested protection from Putin.
Breedlove’s words and advice are clearly being acted upon as NATO, Moldova, Ukraine, Poland and Bulgaria are all preparing for the worst.
The US Military Plans Its Own Snap Military Exercises
NATO is putting boots on the ground in Moldova this summer and we are about 7 weeks away from the total militarization of Moldova. The Moldova connection is highly significant since this is the sight of a planned “war game” this summer in which NATO is practicing for a Russian invasion of the region.
According to Yahoo News, the U.S. and Ukrainian troops will take part in military drills with about 700 soldiers from 10 other countries at a shooting range in central Bulgaria, as reported by the Defense Ministry. Clearly, our military leadership is preparing for war and is busily engaged in forming alliances as a preparation for war. Don’t let the mere presence of only 700 soldiers dissuade anyone from believing that this number will be kept this low. The 700 soldiers was only the original number, this number will undoubtedly climb exponentially in light of the present crisis.
Operation Rapid Trident (2014) is a very large, USAREUR-led multinational military exercise scheduled for July and according to my military sources is still very much alive.
The Trident exercise is to be headquartered in Lviv, Ukraine, near the Polish border. The exercise is a cooperative endeavor between Ukraine and other NATO nations. No doubt that the mere existence of this military exercise pushed Putin to act when he did. Again, Obama and the CIA’s triggering of the coup in Ukraine which led to the ouster of the Russian friendly government, happened too quickly and it gave Putin time to act to prevent NATO any meaningful opportunity to consolidate its forces.
In the months of June and July, NATO is building a combat ready military response to the Russian soldiers amassed on Ukraine’s border. Ask yourself this important question, if you were Putin, would you allow NATO to consolidate its military position before attacking? Putin would be a fool to all NATO to “dig in”. And through this entire event, Putin has proven to be anything but a fool.
Putin’s Attack Scenario
Based upon the best available information, Ex- KGB Colonel Putin needs less than a week to subdue Ukraine as the following scenario is stil the most likely chain of events that will transpire and lead to the conquest of Ukraine.
Russian commandos will begin by taking down the power grid of airports and surrounding towns and villages. This will cause mass confusion among Ukraine’s military. Ukrainian military communications will be immediately taken out by surgical air strikes.
Almost immediately, Russian paratroopers and helicopters will be deployed to Ukraine’s airports and seize the runways under the cover of early morning darkness. This was the same strategy employed by Putin in the invasion of Crimea. Subsequently, Ukrainian military forces will scarcely know what has hit them.
I have spoke with a total of three former military strategists who are unanimous in their opinion that the Ukrainian airports will be seized with a minimal amount of fighting. The seizing of the airports will mark a quick end for Ukraine’s military resistance.
By the morning of the first day, heavy mechanized equipment will be landed in the seized airports, under the protection of the Russian Air Force, and will link up with the Russian paratroopers holding the airports. Simultaneously, the Russian mechanized forces will cross Ukraine’s eastern border and fan out in three directions and immediately seize the major cities. Russians will invade Ukraine’s southern underbelly, from Crimea, from two directions, to prevent retreat and consolidation of Ukraine’s forces.
It is likely Ukraine will be overwhelmed and fighting will be kept at a minimum and this is by design because Putin needs a relatively intact Ukraine to facilitate the flow of gas to Europe.
The Timing for the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
It is a fool’s errand to try and predict the exact date that Putin will launch an attack upon Ukraine. However, there are some clear timetables in place that will clearly provide Putin with parameters on when he needs to act before NATO can consolidate that period. And that period is fast approaching.
Before “snap” military war games can commence, support personnel must be on the ground preparing for the arrival of the heavy equipment to be used in the exercise. First, the planes arrive and this will be followed by transports carrying heavy military equipment. Once these pieces are in place, the NATO troops will arrive in bulk.
If Putin plans to take over Ukraine with a minimal amount of resistance, he must act prior to consolidation of troops. Since the first NATO snap exercises in Ukraine and surrounding countries are scheduled for late June and early July, NATO will need about five weeks to coordinate the activity. Therefore, we are entering the danger zone of when Putin must act militarily in order to minimize the level of resistance he will face.
To meet the timetables of military consolidation in advance of the exercises, Putin has about four, maybe five weeks to act.
One must consider that Putin may initiate World War III much earlier than five weeks from now. If Russian supported Assad forces in Syria were to go on the offensive with Russian help, NATO might be forced to come to the aid of its CIA/al Qaeda backed rebels in a reverse kind of a TET offensive. This could slow down the military buildup off of Russia’s border by NATO if they were forced to divert resources in support of the Syrian rebels. In the midst of the coming Syrian chaos, Putin would have time to launch a false flag event, blame the Ukrainian government, and subsequently follow up with military action designed to protect pro-Russians living in Ukraine.
In the unlikely event that NATO changes its war games exercises, Putin has about a five week window to gain military control over Ukraine before NATO would be in position to offer any meaningful opposition.
If Putin does not act inside of this five week window, then the Ukrainian standoff will no doubt morph into a cold war scenario similar to the 40 year cold war experienced by the Soviet Union and the United States. A global cold war could destroy what is left of the American economy. I fear that Putin has the necessary mineral resources and the support of the BRICs to win an economic war of attrition related to the necessary build up needed to engage in a prolonged cold war. In either case, Putin holds the upper hand. And since Obama has seen fit to reduce the size of the American military to pre-WW II levels, this has increased the likelihood that the cold war would one day become a nuclear confrontation. And let’s not forget about the Russian spy ship in Cuba and the Iranian naval vessels which were parked off of our east coast. Again I ask, is an EMP attack that far out of the question? An attack in which the Chinese would gladly participate in for reasons that I previously identified in recent articles.
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