Is Jade Helm More About War or Martial Law? A Statistical Analysis


By TLB Contributor: Dave Hodges

The purpose of this article is to take existing on-the-ground-evidence and see what consistent theme emanates from this evidence. The United States military is following two parallel paths, the establishment of martial law preparations and following a path of extreme combat readiness. What is not quite as clear with regard to combat readiness, is the readiness about civil war preparations, a coming world war, or both? Before I present today’s information related to these topics, I would first like to digress in the following section of this paper in order to demonstrate, in a general fashion, how I form conclusions and what motivates me to investigate certain issues over others. Finally, the question will be answered as whether we are more in war mode or martial law mode with regard to Jade Helm.

No Shortage of Tips

People often ask me how I make the decisions on what to cover and how I connect the dots. Some have told me that I have the rare ability to connect dots and come to coherent connections which reveals the true nature related to some set of circumstances. How do I do it? I cheat!  Actually, I use the research and statistical strategies that I have been trained in to make these connections.

Please allow me to say that there are no absolute foolproof methods of analysis. However, there are tried and true methods that when consistently employed can yield much quicker and better analyses than random chance guessing which is what I see a lot of on many sites.

Briefly, here are two examples, derived from a plethora of strategies, of how I use my training to form conclusions and then make near-term projections based upon the data. Using these strategies connected to probability modeling, I am right far more than I am wrong, because I follow the pattern of odds once that pattern begins to emerge in a data set.

Briefly, I often follow two strategies when sifting through large amounts of data being sent to me. One qualitative strategy that I employ is to make conclusions regarding the consistent themes of the data is to create a computerized raw frequency count along with subject specific subcategories regarding preprogrammed variables as benchmarks for analysis. This enables me to find patterns that the average person, not privy to the data, would miss.  I also use a computer based statistical analysis program which correlates variables I program into the analysis. This allows me to narrow down related variables very quickly and this also allows me to ignore “the noise”. I am also able to avoid most the Disinfo trolls deception strategies by following my methods and the deception is easy to pick out because the deception pattern is not consistent or tied to other variables (e.g. correlation analysis). I am amazed how unsophisticated most trolls are.

I get lots of practice employing statistical and research based strategies to from conclusive patterns because I often receive several hundred emails per day. Over half of these emails are providing what the sender believes is direct evidence of some nefarious activity by representatives of the present administration. There is so much to choose from, it can often be difficult to even know where to start. By employing a number of research based strategies with various data-mining techniques, both email and Internet traffic can be scanned for consistencies and it is a simple and quick process if one knows how to copy and paste and properly program the search parameters.

Now that I have provided a simple and very brief glimpse into data analysis, here is an example of representative communications which follow patterns worthy of notation.

Combat Readiness vs. Martial Law

The following communication from Idaho is so very typical of what is going on all over this country. In fact, this email, along with the accompanying pictures is typical of the most commonly observed military preparations going on all across the country. In fact, the data counts tell me that the military is far more concerned, at least in the short-term, about combat preparations than they are martial law preparations. The following typical email comes from a person who calls himself “Beach83″.

Dave ,
This train (one of many) left Pocatello about 1:30 PM today.   Going south
I am sending only a few pics as I don’t want to overwhelm your system.  Pics include M-109 155mm Howitzers which many would think are tanks, M1 Abrams tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, Humvees, ambulances, numerous trucks with unusual equipment on trailors, large potable water stations, conex conatiners, armored units which could be c/c (command / control- but doubtful as they are not tracted or wheeled).  No vehicle bumber numbers for unit designation but all marked US Army- to include the conex containers.  Resembles an A/C unit (armored cavalry) and not straight armor, more probably for a field depot.  The large water storage tanks were the first I have seen and not designed to be moved often.

idPlease sign me “Beach83″

In the last email I neglected to mention there were at least 3 M88 VCRs (Vehicle Tracted Recovery)  These monster have 1,200 HP and can pull three tanks at 30 mph.  They can also lift a pack (engine and transmission) out of a tank and replace it in 20 minutes with a really good crew.



These tanks are for combat much more than they are for martial law. This is a common theme in terms of what I am being sent. For all of these photos, blow them up on your computer, the details are very revealing.


Note the plans for mass casualties with regard to the accompanying medical military vehicles. These vehicles could be used in either martial law or combat. However, because these vehicles are accompanied by combat equipment, it tells us that the expected casualties are going to come from civil war/combat operations. And the combat operations are more than likely domestic. If this was an anticipated foreign war event, these convoys would have distinct patterns of reaching ocean port distribution centers. The data I receive does not support this conclusion. These are domestic war preparations.


These structures are not command and control for a variety of reasons. They are portable detention centers. Certainly we could say that these are portable and temporary FEMA camps. That would be an incorrect statement. These structures are being shipped with combat equipment. These structures are more than likely for prisoners of war. Before you write to me with your expert opinions and expose your inexperience and ignorance because of the novelty of these structures, please know that I have run this by my best sources and these are new and the belief is that they will be used to transport prisoners to POW camps. Prisoners could eventually be moved by train inside of these more secure structures than transporting them by a less secure set of box cars.


Based solely on the recorded data sent to me by Americans all across the country, the odds favor that Jade Helm is much more about war preparations than it is martial law activity based upon an analysis of all recorded material submitted to The Common Sense Show. However, it would be a profound mistake to conclude that Jade Helm is not about martial law implementation, it clearly is. Yet, the data clearly shows that Jade Helm is much more about combat.

In statistical analysis, there is a technique employed to tell the researcher when their data conclusions are complete and how much of their data conclusions are due to chance. This is called “level of significance” testing. The industry standard in research is to reach have a level of significance which is less than .05 before making probability projections. The expression in research looks like this:

This means that the data has less than a 5% chance of being due to chance. Remember, in science and statistics, we never prove anything. We only provide the probability that something is true. And in the case of Jade Helm, the data tells me that the command structure of the military is much more about war than martial law.

Are we building more towards civil war (e.g. the Army vs. DHS) or are we preparing to be invaded (e.g. Red Dawn scenario)? I am working on this problem. My impression from what I am getting is that it could be both because the data is running neck and neck. However, more analysis is needed.


TLB recommends you visit Dave at The Common Sense Show for more pertinent articles and information.

See featured article HERE

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.