Israel’s Influence over US-Iran Nuclear Talk in Serious Decline

Israel’s Influence over US-Iran Nuclear Talk in Serious Decline

On Thursday, it was reported that US President Donald Trump has chosen to sever direct communication with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel. The deterioration in the relationship between the US and Israel seems to stem from Netanyahu’s administration’s inability to provide a definitive proposal concerning Gaza, as well as a lack of a clear strategy and timeline regarding Iran and the Houthis in Yemen. Some reports suggest that people around Trump told him that “Netanyahu was manipulating him.”

“Netanyahu is trapped,” said Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US-Israel relations at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv. “He was banking on Israel’s position relative to Iran to improve under Trump. In practice, it’s the opposite.”

Following Trump’s announcement earlier this week of an alleged and mischaracterised truce with the Houthis, it would appear that on Thursday, the US President entertained a discreet meeting with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, in the presence of Vice President Vance, State’s Secretary  Rubio, and White House envoy Steve Witkoff. President Trump will begin his first major three-day diplomatic trip next week, visiting three Middle Eastern countries starting in Saudi Arabia. followed by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Trump said Tuesday during a swearing-in ceremony for White House envoy Steve Witkoff that he had no intention to stop in Israel during his trip, a move which is likely to limit Israel’s influence on the U.S. approach to nuclear talks with Iran. Interestingly, a report by Reuters on Thursday indicated that the United States has ceased to insist that Saudi Arabia establish formal relations with Israel as a prerequisite for advancing discussions on civil nuclear cooperation.

Tehran has shown willingness to engage in diplomacy with the U.S., and it would appear that Witkoff will be in Oman for the talks on May 11.  In the aftermath of Israel’s effective sabotage of the ceasefire, the health ministry of Gaza reported that the military offensive by Israel has resulted in the deaths of more than 52,000 Palestinians, amid escalating allegations of genocide and war crimes. Axios has the story…

IMAGE: US President Donald Trump, right, speaks during a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, in the Oval Office of the White House, as Ambassador Ron Dermer looks on, Monday, January 27, 2020, in Washington. (Source: AP/ Evan Vucci)

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Barak Ravid reports for Axios…

Trump had “private meeting” with Netanyahu adviser ahead of Mid-East trip

President Trump met Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Thursday and discussed the nuclear talks with Iran and the war in Gaza, according to two sources briefed on the meeting.

Why it matters: The meeting at the White House, which was not made public by the U.S. or Israel, took place ahead of the fourth round of nuclear talks between the U.S and Iran on Sunday in Muscat and President Trump’s trip to the Middle East starting on Monday. Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE on this trip but will skip Israel.

Between the lines: The meeting is somewhat unusual in that presidents don’t typically meet with foreign officials who are not the head of state or government.

Friction point: It took place two days after Netanyahu and his team were blindsided by Trump’s announcement of a truce with the Houthis, exposing the gaps in trust and coordination between the administrations.

The announcement came shortly after Israel had carried out strikes on a major port and airport in Yemen in response to a Houthi attack on Tel Aviv’s international airport. The Israelis were alarmed that Trump’s ceasefire didn’t apply to attacks on Israel.

“We were shocked that the Trump administration didn’t tell us anything and we learned about it from the television,” one Israeli official told Axios.

The episode raised concerns about the likely limits of Israel’s influence on the U.S. approach to nuclear talks with Iran. Netanyahu is sceptical of diplomacy and wants Trump to consider a military option.

Behind the scenes: Dermer met on Wednesday with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and expressed the Israeli concerns, a source with knowledge said. On Thursday, Dermer had several meetings in the White House, including one with Trump.

Vice President Vance, Rubio and White House envoy Steve Witkoff also attended the meeting, according to one source. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Trump met Dermer and said it was a “private meeting.”

What’s next:  Witkoff and his team are expected to hold another round of nuclear talks with Iran on Sunday in Oman, according to two sources with knowledge.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will head the Iranian delegation. Trump reiterated Thursday that he’s trying to work out a nuclear deal with Iran without having to use military force.

What to watch: Israel has set the end of Trump’s trip as the deadline for a new hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza and is threatening a massive operation to flatten and occupy the enclave and displace its entire population if no deal is reached. Witkoff has been working in recent days with Qatari and Egyptian mediators to press Hamas to agree to release some hostages in return for a temporary ceasefire, but the group continues to insist that Israel agree to end the war in exchange for the release of all hostages.

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