‘All Greed, No Fear’ Of Fed As Crude Carnage Continues
VIX Hits 4-Year Low
The market appears to be calling ‘Powell the Pusillanimous‘ bluff by rallying fearlessly (and selling vol unabashedly) into [today’s] FOMC (and Dot-Plots) meeting.
He wouldn’t dare stomp on the massive easing in financial conditions, right?
Source: Bloomberg
Or admit the economy is not doing so great?
Source: Bloomberg
Or admit that the ‘trend’ in CPI is disinflationary? (cough today’s SuperCore CPI bounced back above 4.00%)…
Source: Bloomberg
For now, the market remains of the opinion that every Fed member will be wrong about monetary policy next year – the question is: how many of those Fed ‘dots’ will sheep-like move to the market’s demands, or stay firm ‘higher for longer’ to stamp out inflation for good?
Source: Bloomberg
The disconnect between stocks and commodities in a weaker macro-environment is growing wider and wider as cyclical stocks (growthy) soar while cyclical commodities – Oil – plunge…
Source: Bloomberg
Who’s right? Or are they both right? Oil has priced in the recession and stocks have priced in the post-recession QE.
VIX was clubbed like a baby ‘fear’ seal back to an 11 handle…
…basically its lowest post-COVID close…
Source: Bloomberg
The vol-selling helped fuel more gains in stocks, led by Nasdaq. Everything accelerated higher after 1pmET. The last 30 mins of the day saw some profit-taking which dragged Small Caps into the red…
A solid 30Y auction appeared to trigger a massive buy program in stocks (at around 1pmET)…
Source: Bloomberg
After the massive short-squeeze on Dec 1st, the ‘most shorted’ stocks basket has chopped sideways unable to extend or reverse its trend (helped by the vol-crushing surge in long gamma)…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -2bps, 2Y +2bps). This recoupled the wings (2Y and 30Y) as the belly is outperforming on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The 30Y yield tested Friday’s lows, ramped almost 10bps on the CPI print and then faded back after the strong auction…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite a little hawkish pullback this week, the trend remains very dovish for next year (with 115bps of rate-cuts priced in)…
Source: Bloomberg
CPI sparked a kneejerk higher in the dollar (briefly into the green on the day) before fading back to red…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin saw resistance at $42,000 once again and faded back today…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold rallied intraday (but was unable to get back up to $2000) before fading back to $1980…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices puked again today, with WTI breaking below last week’s lows ($68 handle)…
That is basically the lowest level in the last two years and has historically been a significant support level…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, the dramatic easing of financial conditions has erased all of The Fed’s rate-hike pressures since June 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Is that really what The Fed wants?
_________
MORE MARKET STORIES
Citadel Handing Back $7 Billion In Profits To Investors After 15% Return In 2023
America’s Luck Running Out As Rising Rates Start To Bite
China’s Promise Of Reform Yet To Impress Traders
*********
(TLB) published this article from ZeroHedge as compiled and written by Tyler Durden
Header featured image (edited) credit: Powell/org. ZH article
Emphasis added by (TLB)
••••
••••
Stay tuned to …
••••
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
••••
Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.
••••
Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
••••
Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.
Leave a Reply