ER Editor: See our recent output on the One Nation Party win, its first ever, in a massive region of New South Wales —
How Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party roared to victory in Farrer, NSW
Australia’s bulwark against populism is cracking
Below is a report from substacker Rebekah Barnett and a short report from European Conservative.
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JUST IN: Right-wing One Nation Party ahead of both major parties in new poll
A federal election held today would be ‘too close to call’
On Tuesday I wrote about how right-wing populism is finally becoming a force in Australian politics, with the previously fringe One Nation Party racking up some electoral wins after overtaking the cratering centre-right Liberal-National Coalition in polls early this year.
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Today, a new poll has One Nation in front of both major parties, sounding the alarm that it could pose a serious threat not just for the Coalition, but for centre-left Labor as well.
This is the first time a minor party has overtaken both majors in a national poll, ever.
Polling company Roy Morgan says a federal election held today would be “too close to call” with a “likely hung parliament.”
According to the snap SMS poll, One Nation has more primary support (32 percent) than Labor (28.5 percent), and almost double the support of the Coalition (16.5 percent).
This is a considerably higher result for One Nation than previous polling this year, which has showed that between 21-24 percent of respondents would vote for the party.
Post-budget sentiment would be a contributing factor: the poll was conducted over May 13-14, just after Labor’s widely criticised federal budget was handed down.
On a choice between only Labor and One Nation, Labor leads by just two points, at 51 percent vs. 49 percent, respectively. This should seriously concern Labor given One Nation’s stated intention of targeting some of its stronghold seats, starting with western Sydney.
Between Labor and the Coalition, Labor leads with 55 percent to the Coalition’s 45 percent. On a three-party preferred basis, taking into account major party preferences, Labor is comfortably in front (44.5 percent) against One Nation (36.5 percent) and the Coalition (19 percent).
As discussed in my previous post, the Australian system allows major parties to take government even if only a third or so of the population gives them the primary vote due to preferencing.
The poll also found that the majority of its sample of 2,348 people disapprove of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (59 percent). A YouGov poll from April 28-May 5 had Albo’s disapproval rating at 54 percent. Nonetheless, that same poll showed that Albo was more popular (54 percent) than One Nation leader Pauline Hanson (35 percent) as preferred Prime Minister.
In the Roy Morgan poll, respondents who favoured One Nation were motivated by concern about immigration and national identity, deep dissatisfaction with the major parties, perceptions that Australia is in economic and cultural decline, and opposition to “woke” politics, climate policies and global institutions. Party leader Pauline Hanson was viewed by partisans as an authentic and honest political figure.
As it was a snap SMS poll and not Roy Morgan’s usual face-to-face methodology, this may have some bearing on the results. Further polling will show whether this was a blip, or the continuation of One Nation’s dramatic rise in Australian politics.
Tuesday’s backgrounder:
Australia’s bulwark against populism is cracking
The right-wing populist wave that broke over much of the democratic world with Brexit and the first Trump presidency in 2016 barely lapped at Australia’s shores. The island nation’s compulsory, preferential voting…
Source
Australia: Nationalist One Nation Overtakes Governing Labor in Post-Budget Poll
Roy Morgan poll shows Pauline Hanson’s One Nation surging to 32% primary vote, ahead of Labor on 28.5%, just days after controversial proposed tax reforms.
TEC NEWS
A demonstrator displays a banner showing One Nation Senator Pauline Hanson (C) during an anti-government and anti-immigration protest rally on Australia Day in Melbourne on January 26, 2026. Izhar KHAN / AFP
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The poll, carried out May 13–14 and surveying more than 2,300 voters across Australia, found One Nation at 32% of primary support, compared with Labor on 28.5%. The center-right Liberal–National Coalition trailed with 16.5%, while the Greens and ‘other parties’ were each recorded at 11.5%.
On a two-party preferred basis, the contest remained extremely close. Labor held a narrow lead over One Nation at 51% to 49%, while another calculation showed a near split between One Nation and the Coalition.
The poll comes in the wake of a contentious federal budget that included changes to housing investor tax settings, including restricting negative gearing—the ability to deduct the losses when the costs of an investment property exceed rental income—and introducing a minimum 30% tax rate on net capital gains.
A majority of respondents also expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s leadership. The poll found that 59% of Australians disapprove of the job Anthony Albanese is doing, while 40% said they approve of his performance as prime minister.
Earlier this year, Albanese was forced into an early exit from Eid celebrations in Sydney after being loudly heckled inside the country’s largest mosque. Just 15 minutes after joining the congregation, Albanese and Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke were branded “genocide supporters” by a vocal segment of the crowd.
The survey found similar sentiment toward treasurer Jim Chalmers, with 57% disapproving of his performance.
According to the findings, disapproval of the prime minister was consistent across genders, all age groups, and most states, with Tasmania the only state where approval remained a majority.
Source
Featured image source: https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news-corner/australia-nationalist-one-nation-overtakes-governing-labor-in-post-budget-poll/
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Published to The Liberty Beacon from EuropeReloaded.com
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