What Can We Expect At the Border During Presidential Transition?

U.S. immigration policy is expected to shift dramatically following Donald Trump’s re-election as president, but what can we expect in the two-month period between Trump’s election and his inauguration?

Trump’s election signaled a mandate from the American people for a more secure border and the removal of those in the country illegally, but the public will have to wait until Jan. 20, 2025 to begin to see their desired policies take effect.

But what happens at the border in the meantime?

On one hand, it’s easy to see many foreign nationals being emboldened to rush the border illegally in the waning days of Joe Biden’s term, knowing it may be their last chance to get into the U.S. for the foreseeable future. In fact, it stands to reason that drug and human trafficking cartels, which have experienced record profits in recent years due to the Biden administration’s anti-border policies, will want to take as much as they can before the incoming Trump administration puts them out of business. The U.S. did see an uptick in crossings in the final month before the election, suggesting an urgency from aspiring migrants and their benefactors. On the other hand, many foreign nationals may believe that making the arduous journey to the U.S. may no longer be worthwhile given the U.S. government will begin taking border enforcement seriously very soon.

Reports have emerged since Election Day that a caravan of thousands of foreign nationals that was headed to the U.S. decided abandon its northward trip following Trump’s victory. Trump has long promised mass deportations if he was elected, and he recently appointed Immigration Reform Law Institute Senior Fellow and former acting ICE Director Tom Homan to lead the effort. The incoming administration clearly means business, and as more and more foreign nationals receive that message, it becomes more likely they may be to just decide to stay home.

There is precedent to support this scenario given the sharp decline in illegal crossings after Trump took office for his first term in January 2017. Illegal border crossings declined by roughly 40 percent during Trump’s first month in office. Many in the political class and in elite institutions believed Trump’s 2016 victory to be a fluke and tried to thwart his policies across the board. This was especially true when it came to immigration. This time, however, the mandate the American people have given the president-elect is undeniable and should prove harder for elites to obstruct, though many will try.

We only have one administration at a time in the U.S. While the Biden administration has the authority to govern through the rest of its term, this month’s election results should force it to think long and hard about how it wants to conclude its time in power. If, over the next two months, Team Biden opens the floodgates at the border and exacerbates the crisis it caused, it will only increase support for the Trump administration and its allies in government.

The Biden administration tried for years to sell the American people on the notion that its anti-border policies were working and that there was never a crisis at the border. The Biden White House only grudgingly admitted there might be a border security problem when attempting to mitigate political fallout associated with Democrat attempts to retain the presidency. Now, with the election over, unshackled from political constraints, the Biden administration could theoretically use its remaining time in office to move full steam ahead on its destructive borders agenda, but this would be both unwise and un-American. Voters sent a clear message earlier this month that they want to see an end to the era of open borders and mass migration, and those in positions of power have a responsibility to heed those wishes immediately rather than attempt to punish voters by further degrading their sovereignty.

Regardless of what the Biden administration’s immediate intentions are, the American people can be comforted by the knowledge that positive change is coming in this area and that it is coming soon. What happens at the border over the next two months is unclear, but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic for the future. With Trump back in office and patriots like Homan spearheading border policy, the American people will have a chance to enjoy a safe and secure border sooner rather than later.